UK inflation jumps more than expected
The impact from the fall in the pound has started to feed through to import price inflation, but we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hold fire on raising interest rates.
21 März 2017
UK consumer price inflation has jumped to its highest rate since September 2013, as the fall in the pound since the Brexit referendum has started to push prices of imported goods up.
The headline rate of annual consumer price inflation (CPI) rose from 1.8% in January to 2.3% in February, surprising to the upside when consensus expectations were for a rise to 2.2%.
Inflation has been rising steadily for some time, mainly due to the negative impact of the recent fall in global energy prices dropping out of the annual comparison. However, the impact from the fall in sterling is now also feeding into consumer prices, which is set to squeeze household finances over the course of this year. We forecast headline inflation to rise through 3% in the coming months, before peaking around the end of the summer, and then steadily coming down to around 2% over 2018.
For the BoE, the latest figures will be disappointing. Inflation is likely to overshoot the Bank’s forecast and could persuade rate-setters to consider raising interest rates later this year. Indeed, outgoing Monetary Policy Committee member Kristin Forbes voted to raise interest rates at the last meeting, and could have more support over the coming months.
We expect the Bank to hold fire for now as the rise in inflation is not being matched by higher wage inflation. As a result, the real disposable income of households is falling, which should reduce demand in the economy and therefore inflation in time. We doubt the BoE would want to raise interest rates at a time when household finances are being squeezed.
Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change. To the extent that you are in North America, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Schroders plc and SEC registered adviser providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and Canada. For all other users, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.