The global recovery remains intact and political risks have eased, but more traditional macroeconomic concerns return to the fore.
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint
In this month's update, we look at how political risks may be fading and macro worries are returning, consider the policy differences between the UK's two major parties, and examine the diverging fortunes of the emerging markets.
Allegations of corruption against Brazil’s president could have implications for economic recovery and may alter the outlook for the 2018 presidential election.
In this month's infographic we look at whether dollar strength has reached a turning point, how the UK election offers hope for a softer Brexit and the political turmoil in South Africa.
Macron’s reform agenda should be positive for economic growth in France. As political risk falls, investors can now turn their focus to the corporate earnings recovery.
Amid signs that the US dollar is dragging on US activity we believe that the path is open to a weaker currency. President Donald Trump would welcome dollar depreciation as would the emerging markets, but such a development could be problematic for the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Prime Minister Theresa May’s surprise announcement that there will be an election on 8 June has been cheered by investors. The economy is on the verge of slowing, making holding the election more urgent for the government.