Global Market Perspective
In the latest economic and asset allocation views covering Q3 2017 we ask if investors have become complacent, review mid-year markets and look at the historical market impact of presidential impeachments.
Emerging markets have benefited from an extremely accommodative environment but global liquidity conditions are becoming less easy than they used to be. We look at where the vulnerabilities may lie.
We highlight a few of the charts we found interesting this month, including a roundup of stockmarkets, a warning to bulls and a global infrastructure deficit .
Keith Wade gives a mid-year overview of the global economic outlook. Topics include fading political risk in the eurozone, challenges posed by Brexit, prospects for the “Trump trade” and a discussion of current low market volatility.
The Russian central bank cut its headline interest rate by 25bps, in line with expectations, but changed its outlook for the pace of future easing.
Following the latest interest rate rise in the US, we expect a further one in September and balance sheet reduction to kick in around the turn of the year.
The global recovery remains intact and political risks have eased, but more traditional macroeconomic concerns return to the fore.
We have downgraded most of the BRIC economies as idiosyncratic stories deteriorate. China escapes unscathed, with a slowdown still expected later this year after a strong first quarter, as tighter policy bites.
Andrew Rose explains why the geopolitical backdrop should not distract investors from positive company-level changes in Japan.