Economic views


30NOV 2018

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - December 2018

In our latest update to our growth forecasts, we explain why we've downgraded global growth for 2019.

20NOV 2018


Infographic: A view of the world economy in November 2018

In this month's infographic we look at whether other countries are following the US lead and turning to fiscal policy, the reasons for weakness in eurozone data, and the outlook for Brazil's economy under Jair Bolsonaro.

19NOV 2018


How worried should we be about the slowdown in German manufacturing?

New emissions standards for cars have resulted in weaker production in an important part of the German economy.

16NOV 2018


Brexit: UK economic outlook hinges on May selling deal

We think the risk of a no-deal Brexit should mean Theresa May gets her deal through parliament. If not, the UK risks a recession next year.

14NOV 2018


Natural disasters hit Japanese growth

Japan's stop-start year continues with weakness seen across the board over the third quarter amid a series of natural disasters.

12NOV 2018


Should other countries take a leaf out of Trump's economic playbook?

With growth outside the US faltering, we expect governments around the world to take a leaf out of Trump’s playbook and use tax and spending measures to support their economies.

09NOV 2018


World Cup spending spree temporarily boosts UK economy

Although third quarter GDP data was strong, the UK economy flat-lined in August and September. We expect a very weak end to 2018.

07NOV 2018


US midterm elections: Is gridlock good?

Quickview: The US midterms have, as expected, seen the Democrats take the House with the Republicans holding the Senate. Our investment experts consider the implications for fiscal policy, trade, and the 2020 presidential election.

02NOV 2018


December rate hike likely after US jobs boost

Quickview: Latest data paints a rosy picture for US employment and wage growth, and supports the case for a further rate hike in December.


31OCT 2018

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - November 2018

The market selloff, the return of fiscal policy, a slowdown in eurozone data and Bolsanaro's Brazil victory all feature in our monthly analysis of the global economy.